@seanwy / Calibration 101
Calibration 101
22 cards. Adding it makes your own copy. The author's later changes won't affect yours, and your progress stays private.
- What does it mean to be well calibrated?qa
- What is the minimum kit for measuring your own calibration?qa
- How tightly does confidence track knowledge?qa
- 'Overconfidence' names three different things. Which three?qa
- What is the hard–easy effect?qa
- If the material is hard and my confidence is high, then I treat that pairing as the classic setup for overconfidence — and ask what evidence earned the number.if-then
- I state confidence I am prepared to be scored on — no number I would not bet at.assertion
- What is a base rate, and where does it belong in a forecast?qa
- A pitch is brilliant, the founders are impressive, and you feel the this-one-is-different pull. What number do you look up before estimating?scenario
- If my estimate came straight from how vivid the story is, then I stop and price the comparison class first.if-then
- Calibration versus resolution — what is the difference?qa
- How could you score perfectly on calibration while being useless — and what exposes it?qa
- When do predictions of your own memory become trustworthy?qa
- What did the Dunning–Kruger studies actually find?qa
- Why does knowing about the Dunning–Kruger effect protect you less than you would expect?qa
- You just learned all this, and now you see overconfidence everywhere — colleagues, pundits, your boss. What is the calibrated move?scenario
- Why must the prediction be recorded BEFORE the outcome?qa
- If I catch myself saying I basically knew that, then I check: was it written down first? If not, it does not score.if-then
- No written prediction, no credit — I only score claims I committed to before the reveal.assertion
- Can calibration be trained?qa
- You get well calibrated at poker. Are you now calibrated about your project estimates?qa
- Pick one confident prediction you made this month. Was it recorded anywhere it could be scored? What would it take to make your next ten scoreable?reflection