@seanwy / Calibration 101

Calibration 101

22 cards. Forking makes an independent copy with a fresh practice profile — the author's calibration never travels.

What does it mean to be well calibrated?qa
What is the minimum kit for measuring your own calibration?qa
How tightly does confidence track knowledge?qa
'Overconfidence' names three different things. Which three?qa
What is the hard–easy effect?qa
If the material is hard and my confidence is high, then I treat that pairing as the classic setup for overconfidence — and ask what evidence earned the number.if-then
I state confidence I am prepared to be scored on — no number I would not bet at.assertion
What is a base rate, and where does it belong in a forecast?qa
A pitch is brilliant, the founders are impressive, and you feel the this-one-is-different pull. What number do you look up before estimating?scenario
If my estimate came straight from how vivid the story is, then I stop and price the comparison class first.if-then
Calibration versus resolution — what is the difference?qa
How could you score perfectly on calibration while being useless — and what exposes it?qa
When do predictions of your own memory become trustworthy?qa
What did the Dunning–Kruger studies actually find?qa
Why does knowing about the Dunning–Kruger effect protect you less than you would expect?qa
You just learned all this, and now you see overconfidence everywhere — colleagues, pundits, your boss. What is the calibrated move?scenario
Why must the prediction be recorded BEFORE the outcome?qa
If I catch myself saying I basically knew that, then I check: was it written down first? If not, it does not score.if-then
No written prediction, no credit — I only score claims I committed to before the reveal.assertion
Can calibration be trained?qa
You get well calibrated at poker. Are you now calibrated about your project estimates?qa
Pick one confident prediction you made this month. Was it recorded anywhere it could be scored? What would it take to make your next ten scoreable?reflection